Prediction of future events is futile
The starting point to know
the future is the realization that there are two different, though
complimentary, approaches:
·
Finding and exploiting the time lag between the
appearance of a discontinuity in the economy and the society and its full
impact – one might call this anticipation
of a future that has already happened.
·
Imposing on the yet unborn future a new idea
that tries to give direction and shape to what is to come. This one might call making the future happen.
The future that has already happened is not within the
present business; it is outside: a change in society, knowledge, culture,
industry, or economic structure. It is,
moreover, a major trend, a break in the pattern rather than a variation within
it. Looking for the future that has
already happened and anticipating its impacts introduces new perception in the
beholder. The need is to make oneself
see it. What then could or should be
done is usually not too difficult to discover.
The opportunities are neither remote nor obscure. The pattern has to be recognized first.
Predicting the future can only get you in trouble. The task is to manage what there is and work
to create what could and should be.
ACTION POINT: Spot a
discontinuity in the economy or society that has appeared and presents an
opportunity for your enterprise.
Determine how long it will take for this change to impact the
business. Develop a business plan to
cash in on this insight.
Managing for Results
Quoted from The Daily Drucker, page 73
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