The next society will
be with us shortly.
In the developed countries, the dominant factor in the next
society will be something to which most people are only just beginning to pay
attention: the rapid growth of the older population and the rapid shrinking of
the younger generation. The shrinking of
the younger population will cause an even greater upheaval than the growing
number of older people, if only because nothing like this has happened since
the dying centuries of the Roman Empire.
In every single developed country, but also in China and Brazil, the
birth rate is now well below the replacement rate of 2.2 live births per woman
of reproductive age. Politically, this
means that immigration will become an important – and highly divisive – issue
in all rich countries. It will cut
across all traditional political alignments.
Economically, the decline in the younger population will
change markets in fundamental ways.
Growth in family formation has been the driving force of all domestic
markets in the developed world, but the rate of family formation is certain to
fall steadily unless bolstered by large scale immigration of younger people.
ACTION POINT:
Determine whether your organization is betting on young people, older
people, or immigrants. Make sure you
have a plan for the gradual decrease in the youth market and the increase in
newcomers and the aged.
Managing in
the Next Society
Quoted from The Daily Drucker, page 41
No comments:
Post a Comment